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Numerous temperature and environmental proxies are based on glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which are membrane lipids commonly found in the water columns and sediments of lakes. The TEX86 temperature proxy is based on isoprenoid GDGTs, which are produced by members of the archaea, and is used to reconstruct lake surface temperature. Branched GDGTs are lipids produced by bacteria and form the basis of the MBT′5ME temperature proxy. Although many outstanding questions still exist regarding proxies based on isoprenoid and branched GDGTs, both compound classes have been relatively well-studied in lakes. More recently, other types of GDGTs and related compounds are increasingly being reported from lacustrine sediments including hydroxylated GDGTs (OH-GDGTs) and glycerol monoalkyl glycerol tetraethers (GMGTs). In the process of generating lacustrine TEX86 or MBT′5ME temperature records, we noted that OH-GDGTs or GMGTs (or both) are frequently present. The RI-OH, based on OH-GDGTs, recently has been proposed as a temperature proxy in lakes while GMGTs are associated with oxygen-deficient environments. Here we examine distributions of OH-GDGTs and GMGTs in a variety of lakes that also have existing TEX86 or MBT’5ME temperature reconstructions. These lakes range from small to large, shallow to deep, tropical to arctic, differ in oxygenation state, and have sedimentary records covering timespans from the Holocene to multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. Study lakes include El’gygytgyn (arctic Russia), Malawi (tropical southeast Africa), Issyk Kul (Kyrgyzstan), Lake 578 (Greenland), and high elevation lakes in the central Andes (South America). We explore the presence/absence of these compounds in contrasting depositional environments and examine their GDGT distributions in relationship to temperature variability, oxic/anoxic conditions, hydroclimate fluctuations, and other geochemical/environmental parameters. 

The Common Era history of effective moisture in the Central Andes is poorly understood, as most Andean proxy records reflect large-scale atmospheric circulation over the South American lowlands rather than localized precipitation vs. evaporation. Here we present 1800-year leaf wax hydrogen and carbon isotope sedimentary records from Lake Chacacocha (13.96°S, 71.08°W, 4,860 m asl.) in the Central Andes. Leaf wax δ2H from different chain lengths offers information about large-scale atmospheric conditions and local-scale effective moisture. Our leaf wax δ2H data record a gradual intensification of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) beginning around ~1250 CE, prior to the external forcings of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Despite peak SASM intensification, our leaf wax δ13C data reveal a locally arid interval between ca. 1600 and 1800 CE. The arid interval was most likely driven by enhanced evaporation and reduced local precipitation, as indicated by the hydrogen isotope fractionation between mid- and long-chain n-alkanes as well as by climate model simulations. Our results help to reconcile conflicting interpretations of the SASM, glacial, and lake-level histories in the Central Andes during the Common Era. 

Abstract The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear^1,2, with empirical data and model simulations often disagreeing on the magnitude and sign of these responses³. Most climate models predict that the PWC will ultimately weaken in response to global warming⁴. However, the PWC strengthened from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a significant role for anthropogenic and/or volcanic aerosol forcing⁵, or internal variability. Here we use a new annually resolved, multi-method, palaeoproxy-derived PWC reconstruction ensemble (1200–2000) to show that the 1992–2011 PWC strengthening is anomalous but not unprecedented in the context of the past 800 years. The 1992–2011 PWC strengthening was unlikely to have been a consequence of volcanic forcing and may therefore have resulted from anthropogenic aerosol forcing or natural variability. We find no significant industrial-era (1850–2000) PWC trend, contrasting the PWC weakening simulated by most climate models³. However, an industrial-era shift to lower-frequency variability suggests a subtle anthropogenic influence. The reconstruction also suggests that volcanic eruptions trigger El Niño-like PWC weakening, similar to the response simulated by climate models. 

Abstract People’s observations of climate change and its impacts, mediated by cultures and capacities, shape adaptive responses. Adaptation is critical in regions of rainfed smallholder agriculture where changing rainfall patterns have disproportionate impacts on livelihoods, yet scientific climate data to inform responses are often sparse. Despite calls for better integration of local knowledge into adaptation frameworks, there is a lack of empirical evidence linking both smallholder climate observations and scientific data to on-farm outcomes. We combine smallholder observations of past seasonal rainfall timing with satellite-based rainfall estimates in Uganda to explore whether farmers’ ability to track climate patterns is associated with higher crop yields. We show that high-fidelity tracking, or alignment of farmer recall with recent rainfall patterns, predicts higher yields in the present year, suggesting that farmers may translate their cumulative record of environmental knowledge into productive on-farm decisions, such as crop selection and timing of planting. However, tracking of less-recent rainfall (i.e., 1–2 decades in the past) does not predict higher yields in the present, while climate data indicate significant trends over this period toward warmer and wetter seasons. Our findings demonstrate the value of smallholder knowledge systems in filling information gaps in climate science while suggesting ways to improve adaptive capacity to climate change. 

Abstract Characterizing variability in the global water cycle is fundamental to predicting impacts of future climate change; understanding the role of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) in the regional expression of global water cycle changes is critical to understanding this variability. Water isotopes are ideal tracers of the role of the PWC in global water cycling because they retain information about circulation-dependent processes including moisture source, transport, and delivery. We collated publicly available measurements of precipitation δ 18 O ( δ 18 O P ) and used novel data processing techniques to synthesize long (34 yr), globally distributed composite records from temporally discontinuous δ 18 O P measurements. We investigated relationships between global-scale δ 18 O P variability and PWC strength, as well as other possible drivers of global δ 18 O P variability—including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global mean temperature—and used isotope-enabled climate model simulations to assess potential biases arising from uneven geographical distribution of the observations or our data processing methodology. Covariability underlying the δ 18 O P composites is more strongly correlated with the PWC ( r = 0.74) than any other index of climate variability tested. We propose that the PWC imprint in global δ 18 O P arises from multiple complementary processes, including PWC-related changes in moisture source and transport length, and a PWC- or ENSO-driven “amount effect” in tropical regions. The clear PWC imprint in global δ 18 O P implies a strong PWC influence on the regional expression of global water cycle variability on interannual to decadal time scales, and hence that uncertainty in the future state of the PWC translates to uncertainties in future changes in the global water cycle.